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Break-Even Year

Watch the cost curves
cross.

The break-even year is the moment cumulative replacement cost drops below cumulative repair cost. Plot both paths over 20 years and the crossover is undeniable.

Break-even point
YEAR 11
Hold this property fewer years → repair. Hold it longer → replace.

Try it yourself.

Drag the slider to set how many years you’ll hold the property. The math reruns instantly.

Repair path
$1,000/yr
cumulative ÷ years held
Replace path
$1,467/yr
cumulative ÷ years held
Hold years 6 yrs
3 yrs · repair wins 11 yrs · tipping point 20 yrs · replace wins
Repair wins by $467/yr — you’ll hold this less than the tipping point.

Two sides of one number.

The tipping point is the year where the math flips. Hold less than it — repair. Hold more — replace.

Before the tipping point
< 11 yrs
You’re selling, refinancing, or moving the property inside the next decade.
Repair pays for itself before you’d see the cost of replacement amortized.
After the tipping point
≥ 11 yrs
You’re holding this property for the long haul — rentals, generational wealth.
Replacement gets cheaper per year for every year past 11. Repair money is wasted.

A worked example, year by year.

HVAC condenser: repair $2,400 upfront + $600/yr accelerating maintenance vs replace $8,500 upfront + $50/yr light maintenance.

Hold yrs
Repair total
Replace total
Verdict
3
$4,200
$8,650
Repair wins
6
$6,000
$8,800
Repair wins
9
$7,800
$8,950
Repair wins
11
$9,000
$9,050
Tipping point
14
$10,800
$9,200
Replace wins
18
$13,200
$9,400
Replace wins

Find Your Tipping Point

Plug in any component and see exactly which year repair stops winning.

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