Failure Probability Model
Every component is scored with an S-curve failure probability model that drives the warranty analyzer and surfaces hidden risk costs.
How the Probability Model Works
Instead of treating every component as a binary "alive or dead," the engine uses a logistic S-curve to assign each component an annual failure probability based on how much of its useful life has been used.
- Logistic S-curve: ~3% baseline failure, ~50% probability at 85% of useful life, ~95% past lifespan
- Annual risk cost: replacement cost × failure probability × 50% realization factor
- Powers the warranty analyzer's expected payout math
- Surfaces hidden risk costs for components nearing end of life
Why This Matters
A 17-year-old roof on a 20-year useful life is not the same risk as a brand-new one. Most reserve calculators ignore this. The probability model lets you see, in dollars, what each aging component is silently costing you in expected risk.
- Make warranty decisions on math, not gut feel
- Quantify the dollar value of replacing aging components proactively
- See which components carry hidden risk dollars year over year
Sample Output
See what this feature calculates for you.
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